November 12, 2010

After an eight-month political deadlock in Iraq, it has been announced that the incumbent Prime Minister Nouri Kamal al-Maliki, and his State of Law party, has been given the nod to form the next government after a tentative deal was reached. Maliki, a Shiite, was able to gain enough support from other parties to form a majority coalition. One thing that helped with him forming the winning coalition is that he got the support of Muqtada al-Sadr, the anti-American Shiite cleric who was once Maliki's arch rival. It has been reported that Iran (which is Shiite-dominated) was behind this alliance, as they prefer to see all the Shiite parties in one coalition instead of fighting against each other.

After the announcement of a winning coalition was made, it was predicted that the new government would look a lot like the previous one. It was expected that Maliki would remain prime minister; Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, would remain as president; and the third top post, the speaker of Parliament, would go to a Sunni (this division of power is an effort to keep the country's three main factions happy). However, supporters of Ayad Allawi, head of the Iraqiya party (the Sunni bloc), were hoping that he would get a top post. They were hoping he would become president. But the Kurds, who hold the presidency, wouldn't budge on that. There's also been concern that if Allawi didn't take a top post, there could be sectarian unrest -- especially since the Iraqiya party got the most votes in the election. Despite getting the most votes in the election, they were unable to find enough coalition partners in order to get a majority of seats. As a result, it was unclear what role Allawi will play in the new government and how much power Iraqiya will have.  

On Thursday, less than a day after the power-sharing deal was reached, the first session of the new parliament was called in order to formally begin the process of approving the new government. This is when the senior leadership positions are named. The first vote went smoothly, and Osama al-Nujaifi (a Sunni from the Iraqiya party) was elected as parliament speaker. Then, before the vote to elect a president, some Iraqiya members wanted to hold a vote to reverse a ban on three Iraqiya members. These members were disqualified from running in the election and were banned from government posts by a committee, headed by Shiites, that was in charge of rooting out candidates whom they described as loyalists to Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath party. The Iraqiya members' request for a vote was rejected. As a result, 57 Iraqiya members (including Allawi) walked out. They had said that it was part of the power-sharing deal that the other factions would agree to get rid of the controversial de-Baathification law (which Sunnis believe is a Shiite attempt to bar Sunnis from returning to power). At a press conference after the walkout, a lawmaker from Iraqiya said they are seeking "explanations from al-Maliki and State of Law over their broken commitments."

After the walkout, the session continued and the remaining members of Parliament elected Jalal Talabani as president for a second term. After being elected, Talabani formally requested that Maliki form a new government. Maliki now has 30 days to do so. The factions will now work out who gets what ministry positions. Once that has been decided, we'll get a clearer idea of what the government will look like -- for instance, how much power Iraqiya is given and even how much power the anti-American Sadrist movement gets. The Obama administration pressed publicly for an inclusive government that would not disenfranchise Allawi's Sunni supporters, out of fear that this could incite insurgency. It is believed that Allawi will lead the newly created council that oversees issues of security and foreign policy. However, the extent of the council's power and authority remains vague. In fact, there is already contention over that. An Iraqiya lawmaker said the 20-member council will be headed by Allawi and that all decisions regarding security or foreign policy will have to pass the council unanimously, which serves as a real check on Maliki's power. But lawmakers from State of Law implied that that was not the case and that Maliki is unlikely to give up any power over security issues. They said he will not submit to the council's decisions, and that the council will serve as a place to come up with ideas, but not to wield power.  It will be interesting to see what comes about. (Full Story)(Full Story)