March 28, 2010

The political party of Iraq's current prime minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki lost the recent election. Ayad Allawi and his Iraqiya Party got a plurality with 91 parliamentary seats compared with 89 for Maliki's State of Law party (in addition to more seats, Allawi's party also got the most popular votes). Mr. Allawi is a secular Shiite, and his Iraqiya Party included Sunnis; his list won heavily in the Sunni parts of the country. Mr. Maliki's Shiite party went up against other religious Shiite parties, which ended up splitting the vote of the Shiites (who make up 60% of the population). Neither candidate won enough seats to have a majority in Parliament (that would require 163 seats). In the days before the election, it was widely assumed that whichever candidate won the most seats would be given the first attempt to form a government (i.e., to form a parliamentary coalition -- by joining forces with other elected candidates from other parties -- to get enough seats to have a majority) and be given 30 days to do so. Because Ayad Allawi's party got the most seats, it was expected that he would be the new prime minister and would form the new government. Allawi was the former interim prime minister of Iraq. However, Maliki is contesting the election results -- despite the United Nations, the elections commission, and international observers having declared the election legitimate.

Minutes after the UN and the Independent High Electoral Commission announced the election results on Friday, Maliki went on television to counterattack. He said "No way will we accept the results." He vowed to fight back. He also said that some members of Parliament elected on Mr. Allawi's list "are terrorists held in Iraqi prisons." (The top political officer in the U.S. Embassy in Iraq said that U.S. officials had no knowledge backing that claim). Some worry that Maliki might forcibly hold on to power or stage a coup, but American officials said they are confident he will behave lawfully.

On Thursday, a day before the official election results were announced, Maliki quietly persuaded the Iraqi Supreme Court to issue a ruling that potentially allows him to choose a new government instead of Ayad Allawi. The court's ruling, which was made quickly and with little explanation, stated that the leader of the bloc with the most followers once Parliament convenes -- probably in June -- would be the one to form a government. That gives both candidates until June to win over candidates from other alliances. In other words, Allawi would not be given the chance to form a government now, despite getting a plurality in the election -- instead Allawi and Maliki have to "square off" to win over candidates to their blocs and whoever has the most in June gets to form the government. Legal experts have said the court's ruling is binding. Mr. Allawi was also dismissive of the legal challenge. He said, "The Iraqi people have honored the Iraqiya list and chose it to be the basis of forming the next government."

In addition, officials from the government's Accountability and Justice Commission that are in charge of purging the government of former members of the Baath Party (Saddam Hussein's party) said on Saturday that they still expected to disqualify more than 50 political candidates, many of whom are members of Allawi's Iraqiya Party. The election commission has still not released the names of the winning candidates, only their total numbers by party affiliation, so it is unclear how many of the 52 potentially disqualified candidates are among the winners. An Iraqiya lawmaker said if any of their winning candidates are disqualified, they will be replaced by another Iraqiya candidate. The deputy head of the electoral commission also said that would probably be the outcome, and that it's up to the electoral commission to decide in cases like that. However, the executive director of the Accountability and Justice commission said the party cannot just replace a candidate. He said the votes for the disqualified candidate and his list will be nullified completely. If this happened, it could strip Allawi's plurality (his party currently holds only two more seats than Maliki's party).

And if all that does not work in Maliki's favor, he can call for a recount. Maliki said he plans to file an appeal for a recount, even though international observers said the election was valid. Ultimately, the Supreme Court of Iraq -- which has proved to be friendly to Maliki in the past, despite being nominally independent -- will decide the recount issue. The top political officer in the U.S. Embassy in Iraq, Gary Grappo, said that Maliki and his supporters are "still going to take advantage of all the means at their disposal to eke out a victory. They're all politicians."

Iraqi and international analysts had predicted that even if the election process went according to schedule, the earliest that a new government will probably be formed is July. However, all the likely legal disputes will further set the process back. This raises the prospect of Iraq remaining under a caretaker government still led by Maliki. (Full Story)