April 01, 2010

The leading challenger in Sudan's upcoming presidential elections suddenly withdrew from the running Wednesday night. Yasir Arman, the candidate for the Sudan People's Liberation Movement, said he was dropping out because it was "impossible" to hold an election in the conflict-torn region of Darfur and that the whole electoral process had been rigged. However, he said his party would participate in the parliamentary and local elections across Sudan, except for Darfur. The election, which is scheduled for April 11, is considered to be the first meaningful vote in Sudan in over 20 years. Arman's departure casts a cloud of uncertainty over the election (and its legitimacy), and it could also potentially complicate the landmark peace agreement that ended decades of civil war.

Several human rights groups have expressed concerns about the upcoming elections. These groups have complained that Sudan's ruling party has intimidated and tortured opponents, skewed the census in the ruling party's favor, manipulated the media in their favor (and at the opposition's expense), and used state money to bribe local chiefs. As a result of these concerns, some Western election observers recently advised the Sudanese government to postpone the vote. In response, President Omar Hassan al-Bashir (who has been indicted on crimes against humanity for the ethnic conflict in Darfur -- a conflict in which an estimated 300,000 people died) threatened to cut off the election observers' fingers.

While there is concern about the election's outcome, in reality, very few people expected that the elections would be "a shining example of democracy" (as the New York Times so nicely put it). Afterall, Sudan is currently a tightly controlled police state. What people are most concerned about is the referendum scheduled for early next year. This is the vote in which southern Sudanese cast their decision as to whether they want to split off and form their own country. Analysts say that if the referendum is tampered with, it could potentially lead to a huge conflict, or even war, between the north and the south. The previous civil war between the north and south went on for decades and more than 2 million people were killed. The conflict is between Muslims from the north and Christian or animist people from the south. A US-backed peace treaty ended the war in 2005; the treaty also set in place the upcoming elections and the southern independence referendum. President Bashir (from the north) said he would abandon the referendum if the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (from the south) boycotts the elections. He said, "If they say there will be no elections, we will say there will be no referendum."

With the upcoming elections and the referendum, this is a very politically-sensitive time in Sudan, and the peace agreement is hanging in the balance. Especially as each side accuses the other of wrong-doing. In anticipation of the referendum, both sides have been rearming themselves in preparation for another possible war. Thousands of southerners have been killed in recent ethnic clashes that many Sudan analysts believe are fueled by the north.

As for the upcoming election, President Bashir's ruling party accused Arman and his party of simply trying to "save face". They argued that Arman dropped out because he knew he was going to lose badly to President Bashir. While some Sudan analysts suspect that a deal was made between SPLM and the ruling party in which SPLM agreed to give a clear path for Bashir to win the presidency (without a runoff), and in return Bashir guarantees that he won't stop the referendum. Analysts say this secret deal theory is plausible because southern political leaders care much more about the independence referendum than they do about the national elections. Some say that is one reason why the SPLM chose Arman, and not their highest ranking official (who is a vice president in Sudan), to run against Bashir. Regardless, many from the south were still disappointed that Arman dropped out. (Full Story)